This paper provides figures for the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (the “claimant count”) by parliamentary constituency, as well as a summary of the latest labour market statistics for the UK as a whole. In the latest quarter, there was a fall in unemployment levels and the unemployment rate remains at its joint lowest level since comparable records began in 1971. Despite employment levels increasing, the employment rate fell slightly from the previous quarter. Average pay continued to grow faster than inflation, with pay excluding bonuses growing at its fastest rate since 2008.Jump to full report >>
The full briefing paper will be published this afternoon.
The claimant count figures provided in this paper are affected by the ongoing rollout of Universal Credit. The claimant count comprises people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance, or people claiming Universal Credit who are required to seek work. Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This has the effect of increasing the number of unemployed claimants. So changes in claimant numbers may be a consequence of the Universal Credit rollout rather than changes in economic conditions.
The effect is most visible in areas operating Universal Credit "Full Service”, where rollout of Universal Credit is more advanced: in these areas, there tends to have been a sharp increase in the claimant count over the past year.
In order to adjust for this effect, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) published for the first time on 22 January 2019 an ‘alternative’ claimant count series. The alternative series modelled what the count would have been from 2013 onwards had Universal Credit been operating fully, to capture the ‘broader span’ of claimants covered by Universal Credit. So as well as counting people who were indeed claiming unemployment benefits, it includes people who may not have been claiming at the time but who would have been required to look for work had Universal Credit been in place.
Commons Briefing papers CBP-8622
Authors: Andy Powell; Brigid Francis-Devine; Niamh Foley; Matthew Ward