UK Gross Domestic Product: Regularly updated data on growth and forecasts.Jump to full report >>
The economy grew by 0.6% in May-July 2018 compared to the previous quarter (February-April).
At face value this is a fairly strong rate of growth, but the latest quarter is being compared with February-April when there was zero growth. This comparison flatters the growth figure for May-July. The Office for National Statistics points out that “monthly growths in the current period weren’t notably strong”.
GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in July compared to the previous month, following growth of 0.1% in June and of 0.3% in May. Monthly data are more volatile than quarterly estimates.
In cash terms, GDP was £2,041 billion in 2017.
The Treasury’s September 2018 survey of independent forecasts for GDP growth showed an average forecast of 1.3% for 2018 and 1.5% for 2019.
At the March 2018 Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast growth of 1.5% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.
Commons Briefing papers SN02783
Author: Feargal McGuinness
Topic: Economic situation