This briefing investigates who the Office for Budget Responsibility are and what they do. It also discusses the Government's fiscal targets, which are included in the Charter for Budget Responsibility.Jump to full report >>
The Office for Budget Responsibility
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was established within days of the Coalition Government coming to power in May 2010 with the aim of improving the credibility of fiscal policy.
The body was initially established on an interim basis with Sir Alan Budd as chair. Robert Chote, a former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has been chair of the OBR since October 2010. The Treasury Committee has the power of veto over this appointment. The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 provides for the establishment of the OBR, and sets out its functions and broad governance structure.
The OBR’s role
Part of the OBR’s role, as laid out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility (the Charter), is to produce forecasts for the economy and the public finances. These are produced independently of the Government. In the past, the Treasury’s forecasts have been based on the Chancellor’s judgement. This has led to the suspicion that forecasts may be over-optimistic. It is hoped that any perception that the forecasts could be politically motivated is removed by an independent body producing them.
The OBR also comments on whether the Government’s policies have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the Chancellor’s targets for the public finances which are set out in the Charter. It also examines the long-term sustainability of the public finances, risks surrounding the public finances, spending on welfare and devolved taxes.
The Charter for Budget Responsibility
The Charter for Budget Responsibility (the Charter) sets out the OBR’s role, how it performs its duties and the required content of its key publications. The Charter also sets out the Government’s basic policy for managing the public finances (its fiscal framework) including what should be in Budget reports, the policy for debt management and how debt management should operate. The fiscal framework also sets out the Government’s targets for the public finances, which are often referred to as its fiscal rules.
The Charter has been changed on several occasions since its introduction in 2011. The latest version was proposed alongside Autumn Statement 2016 and came into force on Tuesday 24 January 2017 when the House of Commons approved it. The current Chancellor – Sajid Javid – has said that he will be reviewing the fiscal framework ahead of the 2019 Budget. The new approach is likely to feature a new set of fiscal rules.
The Government’s fiscal targets
The Charter includes the Government’s targets for the public finances. The fiscal rules are designed to achieve the Government’s overall objective for fiscal policy, which is to return the public finances to balance at the earliest possible date in the next Parliament. Currently government spends more than it receives from taxes and borrows to make up the difference. Reaching a budget balance would mean that there is no need for new borrowing. At the time the objective was introduced, in autumn 2016, its wording suggested the Government was aiming to reach balance by 2025 at the latest. Its interpretation now is questionable, given the early General Election in 2017, but it’s widely interpreted as meaning by 2025/26.
The Charter includes targets for borrowing, debt and the welfare cap.
The Government’s borrowing target – its ‘fiscal mandate’ – requires structural borrowing to be below 2% of GDP in 2020/21. Structural borrowing is the borrowing that remains once elements related to the ups and downs of the economy are removed. It is the amount of borrowing we would expect to remain if the economy was running at a normal, sustainable level of employment and activity.
The fiscal mandate is supplemented by two further targets:
It seems likely that the Chancellor – Sajid Javid – will set out new fiscal rules at Budget 2019. The Government has said that, as part of a new fiscal framework, it will develop “clear set of rules to anchor our fiscal policy and keep control of our national debt.”
Reviews of the OBR
Both an external review and a Treasury review reported positively on the OBR. Both have praised the OBR’s credibility and reputation, and the integrity brought to the fiscal forecasts. Both reviews made recommendations for the future of the OBR, including the need to undertake succession planning for key and long-serving members of staff. The Treasury review recommended the changes currently being made to the OBR’s role.